Israeli Election Post-Mortem

From my father, Hebrew University political scientist Ira Sharkansky

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Reports are that the absentee ballots have been counted, most of which are the soldiers'. There are only a few categories of Israelis who can vote absentee: soldiers; diplomats, some other public service employees and sailors posted away from home; hospital patients; and prison inmates. Ordinary citizens in the country but away from home get free round-trip bus or train tickets to their home. Ordinary citizens overseas can't vote.

Likud and the National Religious Party each gained another Knesset seat from the absentees. An Arab party and a party linked to the Labor Federation each lost. Soldiers tend to be a bit right of center, and the NRP is prominent in sending its sons to the army, including elite combat units.

Prominent losers in the election were the parties that pitched their campaigns leftward. Labor and Meretz together dropped from 36 seats in the previous Knesset to 25 in the coming Knesset.

Unconnected with ideology, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox SHAS party dropped from 17 to 11. Natan Sharansky's Russian immigrants' party dropped from 6 to 2.

The big winners were Likud, going from 19 to 38; and Shinui from 6 to 15.

The problem of the left was their misreading of the situation. Party leaders of Labor and Meretz continue to blame the government for not having a peace plan, while the voters seem to have felt that there is little point trying further to make peace with the Palestinian leadership. The Labor candidate for Prime Minister, Amram Mitzna, made a number of other mistakes. While polls were saying that 60 percent or so wanted a national unity government, he based his campaign on promising to stay out of a national unity government. Then when the polls showed his party wasn't doing well, he conceded defeat before the polls opened! Thus he depressed his party activists and may have lost another seat or two in the Knesset.

The leader of Meretz and Sharansky have done the honorable and resigned their positions. Mitzna and his supporters at the pinnacle of Labor remain convinced of their wisdom. He will stay. Some of his senior colleagues, more interested in winning than in being right, are said to be preparing an intra-party putsch.

SHAS' major problem was the lack of their skilled and charismatic political leader, who spent much of the past two years in jail, and was paroled on condition that he avoid political activity for a given period of time.

Shinui appealed as the middle of the road choice for voters not happy with established parties. It thus joins a list of three of four parties that have done the same over the past 25 years. None of them have done well for more than one election. This is Shinui's second term, but its aging charismatic leader may not have another election in him; and the party's fate in the coming coalition is not yet clear.

Sharansky’s loss may signal the end for Russian parties; at least until some of the younger generation--or perhaps those not yet born--perceive themselves to be disadvantaged. Avigdor Lieberman used to lead a Russian party. Now he is the leader of a party that promotes itself in Hebrew rather than Russian in behalf of right wing causes; he won 7 seats.

Sharon has several options for a coalition, and 42 days to present a government to the Knesset after he is invited by the president to make an effort; and that invitation isn't due for another week or two. It's in Sharon's interest to probe, ponder, wait for the Iraq war, and pursue his best deal. He is a clever politician, and the conditions seem ripe for his talents. Labor and Meretz say he is destined to have a short and stormy period as prime minister and quite a bit of the media supports that view. But a lot of that talk is the sour grapes of ideologues who lost the election, don’t seem to know why, and can't count the number of seats being held by Sharon and his potential partners.

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at January 30, 2003 03:02 PM